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SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7
My Dad repaired most of our shoes believe it or not, I can hardly believe it myself now. With 7 pairs of shoes always needing repairs I think he was quite clever to learn how to “Keep us in shoe Leather” to coin a phrase!

He bought several different sizes of cast iron cobbler’s “lasts”. Last, the old English “Laest” meaning footprint. Lasts were holding devices shaped like a human foot. I have no idea where he would have bought the shoe leather. Only that it was a beautiful creamy, shiny colour and the smell was lovely.

But I do remember our shoes turned upside down on and fitted into these lasts, my Dad cutting the leather around the shape of the shoe, and then hammering nails, into the leather shape. Sometimes we’d feel one or 2 of those nails poking through the insides of our shoes, but our dad always fixed it.

Hiking and Swimming Galas
Dad was a very outdoorsy type, unlike my mother, who was probably too busy indoors. She also enjoyed the peace and quiet when he took us off for the day!

Anyway, he often took us hiking in the mountains where we’d have a picnic of sandwiches and flasks of tea. And more often than not we went by steam train.

We loved poking our heads out of the window until our eyes hurt like mad from a blast of soot blowing back from the engine. But sore, bloodshot eyes never dampened our enthusiasm.

Dad was an avid swimmer and water polo player, and he used to take us to swimming galas, as they were called back then. He often took part in these galas. And again we always travelled by steam train.

Rowing Over To Ireland’s Eye
That’s what we did back then, we had to go by rowboat, the only way to get to Ireland’s eye, which is 15 minutes from mainland Howth. From there we could see Malahide, Lambay Island and Howth Head of course. These days you can take a Round Trip Cruise on a small cruise ship!

But we thoroughly enjoyed rowing and once there we couldn’t wait to climb the rocks, and have a swim. We picnicked and watched the friendly seals doing their thing and showing off.

Not to mention all kinds of birdlife including the Puffin.The Martello Tower was also interesting but a bit dangerous to attempt entering. I’m getting lost in the past as I write, and have to drag myself back to the present.

Fun Outings with The camera Club
Dad was also a very keen amateur photographer, and was a member of a camera Club. There were many Sunday photography outings and along with us came other kids of the members of the club.

And we always had great fun while the adults busied themselves taking photos of everything and anything, it seemed to us. Dad was so serious about his photography that he set up a dark room where he developed and printed his photographs.

All black and white at the time. He and his camera club entered many of their favourites in exhibitions throughout Europe. I’m quite proud to say that many cups and medals were won by Dad. They have been shared amongst all his grandchildren which I find quite special.

He liked taking portraits of us kids too, mostly when we were in a state of untidiness, usually during play. Dad always preferred the natural look of messy hair and clothes in the photos of his children.

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Who Are You Trying to Kid With That Business Plan?

A lot of people dream of starting their own business. They have heard of the “unlimited opportunities” and the “complete freedom” and the “not having a boss”. If you are one of those who have that dream and believe it really can come true then I have something to say to you “WAKE UP!”When you start your own business you don’t have ‘complete freedom’. As a matter of fact there’s a really good chance that you will have less freedom, a lot less freedom. To be successful you will most likely be working seven days a week and you will be working longer hours and you will be working for a lot less money (at least in the beginning). Does it still sound like something you really want to do?As far as ‘not having a boss’ goes, well I hate to be the one to break this to you but you will always have a boss. If you don’t do what the customers want then you will go out of business and if you are lucky enough to borrow money to start and run your business then your banker/investors will be telling you a lot about how you are going to run your business. Okay so maybe they aren’t your ‘boss’ but they are still the ones who will tell your what you must do. And that’s what your current boss does now. Does it still sound good?Of course you can be stubborn and do what you want instead of what the customers want and there’s a word for business owners that do that. They are called employees because they went out of business and had to go back to work for someone else. Still interested in starting your own business?I’m going to assume at this point if you are still reading, that you are interested in starting your own business. Don’t get me wrong, I have started lots of companies and had a lot of success. Over a period of ten years I actually sold two of my companies to a Fortune 50 company for a LOT of money. At that time a lot of my friends commented on how lucky I was for that to happen. I just smiled and didn’t respond to those types of comments. You see, they only saw the end result of a lot of really hard work and a lot of really long hours working seven days a week. They didn’t see the failed marriage, the teetering on the brink of not being able make my payment to the bank. They didn’t see me working for free with no salary at all for weeks and weeks. They didn’t see me having to take money from my personal checking account in order to meet payroll. Yep, I sure was lucky.When you start your own business you don’t see things like those I just mentioned. If you are serious about starting your own business then you have heard that you must have a ‘business plan’ to take to the investors. Well, I have looked at lots and lots of business plans over the years and for the most part they were all worthless. People who want to start a business tend to see the world through rose colored glasses. For example when they get to the part on the business plan where they are to assess the competition nearly everyone completely under estimates not only the number of competitors but the strength of the competitors too. People who are convinced that they want to go into business for themselves tend to operate with blinders on. I’ve seen people come up with some really outlandish things in the ‘Competition Analysis’ of a business plan.Failure to properly analyze the competition is one of the most common flaws I see in start-up business plans. Here’s an example: I had a gentlemen come to me (as a potential investor) with the idea of starting his own Lexus repair shop. He had been a mechanic for over 15 years and had all of the ‘industry certifications’ and had been through all sorts of courses and schools on how to diagnose and repair just about anything related to Lexus automobiles. He had no experience in how to “run” a repair shop but that’s the subject of another article.Here’s how brief recap of how the conversation about competition went:Me: “What about your competition, who are they? Him: “There really isn’t any”. Me: “What? How do people get their cars repaired now?” Him: “Nearly everyone takes their cars to one of the local dealerships for repairs. I can do it a lot cheaper than the dealerships because I will not have all their overhead.” Me: “So there are no independent shops that work on Lexus?” Him: “There are some independent shops but they are so small that I wouldn’t consider them real competitors.” Me: “So why are they so small?” Him: “I think their prices are too high.” Me: “Are their prices lower than the dealerships who are doing the majority of the work now?” Him: “Yes. The independent shops are almost always a lot cheaper than the dealerships.” Me: “So maybe the independents are so small because people who own a Lexus are not swayed by lower prices. After all they paid a lot for their car. Maybe they are not as price conscious as you think.” Him: “I can do the same work for 30% to 40% cheaper, how could they not be interested in that?”Can you see what’s going on here. This guy was convinced he could do it better, faster and cheaper than anyone else. Yet the facts as he presented them showed that the customers he wanted to go after were not easily persuaded by the “cheaper price” argument which happened to be what he wanted to use as his unique selling proposition.One of my favorite sayings when talking to people about their business plans is “Don’t confuse me with the facts because my mind is already made up.” A business plan is supposed to get people to think. To do an unemotional analysis to see if there really is a viable opportunity there. But too many of them will do all sorts of mental gymnastics to justify their position. I don’t care what type of business you are thinking about starting, there is competition out there. Don’t kid yourself.Another big problem I see in business plans is a lack of management experience. Here’s another real world example. I had a ‘friend of a friend’ ask me to meet with a friend of theirs. It was a woman who had the idea of starting her own “cookie bakery”. She didn’t have the funds necessary and was coming to me as a potential investor. I agreed to meet with her. One of the very first questions I asked was “Where did you come up with the idea of starting your own bakery”? She said that for years she had baked cookies and she had lots and lots of people tell her she should start her own bakery. These people (mostly friends and family) said she baked the best cookies they had ever tasted. She had brought some to our meeting and to her credit, they were very good.When I asked her about her experience in running a bakery she told me she had never actually worked in a bakery. As a matter of fact, she had been a secretary up until the birth of her second child and had taken 6 years off. Now that the child was going to school, she was ready to “go into business for myself”.Out of respect for the friend who had asked me to meet with her I didn’t quickly end the meeting as I normally would have. Instead I took some time and asked her some questions. My goal was to try to get her to stop being emotional and to only analyze the facts. A few of the questions were:”Have you picked out a location?”
“Do you have any idea what the lease will be?”
“How much will it cost to renovate to get it ready?”
“How much equipment will it take?”
“Can you lease it or do you have to buy it?”
“Where are you going to get your customers?”
“How much is the insurance going to be?”
“What about liability insurance in case someone claims your cookies made them sick?”
“Where are you going to get your customers?”
“How are you going to advertise?”
“How about utilities?”
“How much will it cost you to make a single cookie?”She stumbled through most of her answers and in exasperation said “You don’t seem excited about this idea”. She said she was really excited about the idea and was hoping I would get excited to. I told her I get excited when the companies I have invested in are making a lot of profit.The meeting was going nowhere and I couldn’t get through all of her emotions so I told her to get all of the information together then total up the monthly expenses with no salary for herself and come back and tell me how many cookies she needed to sell everyday just to pay the bills. She told me that as the owner she should get a salary. I agreed and said your salary will be paid from the profits so your income is virtually unlimited. Just put the numbers together and give me a call when you can tell me how many cookies you have to sell everyday just to pay the bills.Guess what? I never heard back from her. I was the one who rained on her parade with a harsh dose of reality.It takes a lot of courage to go into business for yourself. It’s not for the faint of heart and requires a 100% commitment. And in the beginning it requires you to take a realistic look at the facts without deluding yourself. If you are going to present your business plan to anyone else with the hopes of having them invest in your new venture, you better be ready for some really tough questions. The best way to prepare yourself for those types of questions is to not kid yourself when working up your business plan. As a final note don’t EVER tell a potential investor that there is no competition. They know better.

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